Iran given final ultimatum to ward off US strikes – here’s what could happen next

 Donald Trump has declined to say whether the US would take action against Iran, as America builds up military forces in the region, but there are signs that things could be coming to a head.

Asked by reporters on Saturday evening what his “final decision” would be on an attack on Iran, the US President appeared to give it an ultimatum.

“I certainly can’t tell you that, but we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction, as you know. I can’t tell you, you know. But I hope they negotiate something that’s acceptable,” he said.

He also told reporters that Iran was “talking to” the US, while Tehran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, said a possible framework for negotiations was progressing.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that a US attack would spark a conflict in the Middle East.

“The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” he told Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

US build-up of strength in the region

The US has been steadily moving military assets into the Middle East. Aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, along with other naval, air power and defensive assets, have entered the region, after Trump warned last week that a “massive Armada” was heading towards Iran.

At least 33 US military aircraft designed for insurgency operations and missile strikes have flown to positions allowing for an attack on Iran, a comprehensive analysis of open-source information by The i Paper revealed on Friday.

Trump has previously threatened to retaliate against Iran if it does not make nuclear concessions or end the repression of domestic protesters. The US launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.

Jonathan Hill, a professor of international history at King’s College London, told The i Paper last week that any armed action by the US would most likely take the form of missile strikes against military or security service targets.

“It is possible that US aircraft might also be involved, but this is less likely because of the risk that would inevitably be posed to American pilots,” he said.

Strikes on military targets “could take place at almost any time and with short notice”, he added.

General Amir Hatami, Iran’s army commander-in-chief, has warned the US that Iran has “fingers on the trigger” and is at “a high level of military and defensive readiness”.

He also said: “We are closely watching enemies’ movement in the region. They are under complete surveillance by us… If they make a mistake, without doubt they will endanger their security, the security of their forces, the security of the region, and the security of the criminal Zionist regime,” the last being a reference to US regional ally Israel.

Iran launches naval exercises

Iran is expected to begin a two-day live-fire naval exercise on Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route through which 20 per cent of global oil and gas flows.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the plans earlier this week, with Mohammad Akbarzadeh, the political deputy of the IRGC’s naval forces, appearing to say that the strait could be closed by the exercises.

“Iran has real-time intelligence over the Strait of Hormuz, above and below the surface, and the security of this strategic passage depends on Tehran’s decisions,” he said. “We do not want the world economy to suffer, but the Americans and their supporters will not benefit from a war they start.”

After the US warned Iran against any “unsafe and unprofessional behaviour” near its forces, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi responded: “The US military is now attempting to dictate how our Powerful Armed Forces should conduct target practice in their own turf.”

Would Iran be emboldened if Trump pulls back?

Trump has repeatedly warned that Iran must negotiate a deal over its nuclear programme to avoid air strikes. On Saturday he was asked whether Tehran would be emboldened if the US backed off the threat.

“Well, some people think that and some people don’t… But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, has warned US officials that avoiding strikes on Iran now could have repercussions, Axios reported.

He reportedly said, during a private briefing in Washington DC on Friday, that “at this point, if this doesn’t happen, it will only embolden the regime.”

A second Gulf official, who attended the meeting, reportedly warned that while a US strike could bring “bad outcomes,” failing to act would leave “Iran stronger.”

Bilal Saab, an associate fellow at Chatham House, previously told The i Paper that Trump, “by issuing multiple warnings against the regime… has essentially cornered himself. To stay credible, he must attack.”

After the US strikes last year, Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at think-tank Royal United Services Institute, said strikes on Iran’s military sites would only convince Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons.

She said that “the fact that the US has – for the first time – carried out direct attacks on Iranian territory may very well result in a decision in Tehran that the only option they have for an effective nuclear deterrent is to produce a nuclear weapons capability”.

Is the West supporting Trump?

On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said he supported Trump’s approach towards Iran and that it was vital that the Iranian leadership was not able to develop nuclear weapons. He said the UK would support further US strikes on the country.

“The goal or the aim here is that Iran shouldn’t be able to develop nuclear weapons and that is hugely important and, of course, we need to deal with the fact they are repressing protesters, killing protesters,” Starmer told the BBC.

“It is grotesque what is happening so that is where our focus is and we are working with allies to that end.”

The EU has not formally backed military action against Iran. But while the bloc does not appear to actively support Trump’s actions, it designated the IRGC a terrorist group last week over the crackdown on domestic protesters.

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, hit back, saying that all EU military forces were now terrorist groups in the eyes of the Islamic Republic.

UAE ‘trying to ‘de-escalate tensions’

Qatar is leading diplomatic efforts to try to prevent the crisis from escalating.

Its foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, held talks in Iran on Saturday with several Iranian officials to try to “de-escalate tensions in the region”, according to its foreign ministry.

In a statement, Qatar called for peaceful solutions to the situation and stressed the need to spare the region’s people from the consequences of further escalation.

It also said it was continuing to coordinate with “brotherly” and friendly countries to address differences through diplomatic means.